IBD/TIPP Poll,Can Libertarian Gary Johnson Get 5% Of The Vote?
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| IBD/TIPP Poll, Gary Johnson |
illary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next president, but there's an interesting Election Day subplot: Will Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson grab 5% of the vote
Johnson gets 6.3% of the vote in the latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll. That's up from 3.7% just three days ago. That includes 13% of independents
The libertarian candidate gets 4.7% overall in the Real Clear Politics average
The 5% threshold is significant. If Johnson reaches that level, the Libertarian Party would qualify for public matching funds in 2020. It's unclear if the small-government Libertarian Party would accept such funding
But there are good reasons why Johnson may underperform his polling figures
It's widely acknowledged that Clinton and the Democratic Party has a much stronger get-out-the vote organization than Trump and his allies. But Trump's GOTV efforts easily outstrip anything that Johnson has. Also, with polls showing a tighter Trump-Clinton race, voters who may prefer Johnson — or Green Party candidate Jill Stein — may ultimately vote for one of the two major party picks
Still, Johnson and running mate Bill Weld should easily record the best-ever results for a Libertarian ticket
In 2012, Johnson got 0.99% of the vote, just shy of the Libertarian peak in 1980, when Ed Clark/David Koch got 1.07%
But many will see 2016 as a missed opportunity for the Libertarian Party. Clinton and Trump are historically unpopular candidates, with neither party espousing a strong pro-freedom, small-government message. Meanwhile Johnson and Weld were successful GOP governors, adding a new level of credibility for the Libertarian party
Johnson topped 10% in many summer polls, including IBD/TIPP, with some momentum toward getting the 15% necessary to join the presidential debates
But Johnson is not a great campaigner. He has little knowledge in foreign policy, famously saying "What is Aleppo?" when asked about the hotly contested northern Syria city in that country's civil war. Johnson and Weld, both pro-choice on abortion, also alienated anti-Trump religious voters, when a deft touch might have attracted that sizable group
In Mormon-dominated Utah, Johnson at one point looked like a contender, but has tumbled to a distant fourth as pro-life Mormon candidate Evan McMullin has attracted many "Never Trump" conservatives there
Meanwhile, Green candidate Jill Stein is at 2.2% in the latest IBD/TIPP tracking poll and 1.9% in the RCP average. Like Johnson, she has relatively little organization compared with Clinton and Trump
Still, could Johnson and Stein tip the presidential election
Johnson and, somewhat, Stein have seen their support rise in recent days on the IBD/TIPP tracking poll. That seems to be one reason why Clinton has fallen behind Trump in the poll's four-way reading. (Stein likely pulls almost all her support from left-wing Democrats who might otherwise vote for Clinton. Johnson's support is more divided between libertarian-minded voters in both major parities
But Johnson and Stein may have less impact on the outcome. As stated earlier, they may lag the polls. Second, they are likely to get more support in states where the outcome isn't in doubt, making voters feel more comfortable making a protest vote
Also, many battleground states such as Ohio and North Carolina aren't particularly receptive to either the Libertarian or Green message. Colorado is one exception, where RCP shows Johnson at 6% and Stein at 3%
Of course, if the election comes down to a few thousand votes in Florida, Johnson and Stein support likely would surpass the margin of victory
Johnson gets 6.3% of the vote in the latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll. That's up from 3.7% just three days ago. That includes 13% of independents
The libertarian candidate gets 4.7% overall in the Real Clear Politics average
The 5% threshold is significant. If Johnson reaches that level, the Libertarian Party would qualify for public matching funds in 2020. It's unclear if the small-government Libertarian Party would accept such funding
But there are good reasons why Johnson may underperform his polling figures
It's widely acknowledged that Clinton and the Democratic Party has a much stronger get-out-the vote organization than Trump and his allies. But Trump's GOTV efforts easily outstrip anything that Johnson has. Also, with polls showing a tighter Trump-Clinton race, voters who may prefer Johnson — or Green Party candidate Jill Stein — may ultimately vote for one of the two major party picks
Still, Johnson and running mate Bill Weld should easily record the best-ever results for a Libertarian ticket
In 2012, Johnson got 0.99% of the vote, just shy of the Libertarian peak in 1980, when Ed Clark/David Koch got 1.07%
But many will see 2016 as a missed opportunity for the Libertarian Party. Clinton and Trump are historically unpopular candidates, with neither party espousing a strong pro-freedom, small-government message. Meanwhile Johnson and Weld were successful GOP governors, adding a new level of credibility for the Libertarian party
Johnson topped 10% in many summer polls, including IBD/TIPP, with some momentum toward getting the 15% necessary to join the presidential debates
But Johnson is not a great campaigner. He has little knowledge in foreign policy, famously saying "What is Aleppo?" when asked about the hotly contested northern Syria city in that country's civil war. Johnson and Weld, both pro-choice on abortion, also alienated anti-Trump religious voters, when a deft touch might have attracted that sizable group
In Mormon-dominated Utah, Johnson at one point looked like a contender, but has tumbled to a distant fourth as pro-life Mormon candidate Evan McMullin has attracted many "Never Trump" conservatives there
Meanwhile, Green candidate Jill Stein is at 2.2% in the latest IBD/TIPP tracking poll and 1.9% in the RCP average. Like Johnson, she has relatively little organization compared with Clinton and Trump
Still, could Johnson and Stein tip the presidential election
Johnson and, somewhat, Stein have seen their support rise in recent days on the IBD/TIPP tracking poll. That seems to be one reason why Clinton has fallen behind Trump in the poll's four-way reading. (Stein likely pulls almost all her support from left-wing Democrats who might otherwise vote for Clinton. Johnson's support is more divided between libertarian-minded voters in both major parities
But Johnson and Stein may have less impact on the outcome. As stated earlier, they may lag the polls. Second, they are likely to get more support in states where the outcome isn't in doubt, making voters feel more comfortable making a protest vote
Also, many battleground states such as Ohio and North Carolina aren't particularly receptive to either the Libertarian or Green message. Colorado is one exception, where RCP shows Johnson at 6% and Stein at 3%
Of course, if the election comes down to a few thousand votes in Florida, Johnson and Stein support likely would surpass the margin of victory
