Getting to 270, How to tell who’s really going to vote
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Supporters cheer for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during a campaign rally in the Special Events Center on the Florida State Fairgrounds November 5, 2016 in Tampa, Florida
We're down to the numbers game. Don't worry, we'll still have the name calling, threats, promises, rallies, commercials and more — I didn't say the campaign is over. But all focus now turns to a single number: 270
What's the best path for both candidates to get there? And what's it like inside the campaigns in the final days
As part of my podcast, Political Wire Conversations, I asked Neil Newhouse, lead pollster from Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign. Newhouse is partner and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies and has been named "Pollster of the Year" three times by the American Association of Political Consultants
Supporters cheer for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during a campaign rally in the Special Events Center on the Florida State Fairgrounds November 5, 2016 in Tampa, Florida
Getty Images
Supporters cheer for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump during a campaign rally in the Special Events Center on the Florida State Fairgrounds November 5, 2016 in Tampa, Florida
We're down to the numbers game. Don't worry, we'll still have the name calling, threats, promises, rallies, commercials and more — I didn't say the campaign is over. But all focus now turns to a single number: 270
What's the best path for both candidates to get there? And what's it like inside the campaigns in the final days
As part of my podcast, Political Wire Conversations, I asked Neil Newhouse, lead pollster from Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential campaign. Newhouse is partner and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies and has been named "Pollster of the Year" three times by the American Association of Political Consultants.
Based on his experience and reading of current polls, what guidance did Newhouse offer?
Enthusiasm matters. Don't look simply at which candidate voters say they'll vote for; look at how enthusiastic those voters are
Newhouse: "We passed the time when people were going to be persuaded to one candidate or the other. We're now in the stimulation period, which is: How do I get my people out to vote? How do I motivate them? That's a huge challenge, especially for the Hillary Clintoncampaign. She's kind of lost her momentum… Right now you're trying to figure out where the key media markets in the key states where I can send these candidates so I can turn out voters for my campaign
Keep in mind that you have the two least popular presidential candidates in the history of the country since polling began. This is a nose-holder election. This is an election where voters are not in love — most of them — with either of the two candidates. So you're looking at potentially a lower-turnout election, one in which voters are holding their nose and voting for their candidate
"The most recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll which was done about 10 days ago — there were about 13-15 percent of voters who were either undecided or were voting for [third party candidates] Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. I went back and I kind of recalculated the image numbers for Hillary and for Donald Trump among those 'up for grabs' voters. The numbers are very similar for both candidates: Hillary had a 7 percent positive and a 73 percent negative, and Trump was 7 percent positive and 79 percent negative. They don't want to vote for either one of these candidates
"The only issues in this campaign are the temperament, the personality, the honesty of these two candidates. Voters are not deciding based on their foreign policy or economic plans. Those days have gone. They're deciding on who they dislike least to be president
No news might be good news in this campaign. Newhouse calls this the "nose-holder" election. Trump and Clinton have some of the highest unfavorable ratings of any candidates in history; we know that. But Newhouse went further: Most of the time, you want your candidate in the news — you want the headlines. This go round, the only time Trump or Clinton gets sustained attention is when something negative happens – from emails to "Access Hollywood" tapes
"In this year's election, whenever the focus has been on Hillary, she has lost support. When the focus has been on Donald Trump, he has lost support
